Fancy a punt this weekend? Our tipster Jones Knows has two bets to attack this weekend at 11/2 and 18/1 across the Saturday 3pm kick-offs.
How did we do last weekend?
No joy for our 10/1 Super Sunday goals double
involving a total of over 9.5 goals in West Ham vs Tottenham and Manchester United vs Liverpool. That 10/1 shot became a 1000/1 shot after the West Ham game with nine goals needed at Old Trafford to salvage a return. Liverpool gave it a good go for us, notching five, but there was to be no miracle comeback.
Our Graeme Jones to become Newcastle’s permanent boss bet at 20/1 got off to a fairly average start at Palace but at least the Toon dug in for a point. With no strong leads on the management front at St James’ Park, Jones still stands a decent chance of keeping the job until January but he’s going to need a statement performance or victory in his next two matches against Chelsea and Brighton. There is still 25/1 available with Sky Bet now if you still want to join the Jones backing Jones party.
My weekend mood will revolve around how Brighton fare at Liverpool. I fancy them strongly to make a game of this.
I don’t need to tell you how good Liverpool can be but they are easily ignored here at a very skinny 2/9 with Sky Bet when you consider the level of opposition.
The 12/1 for a Brighton win doesn’t float my boat due to their lack of top-six quality in the final third but Brighton with a +2 handicap start at 11/10 certainly have got my punting juices flowing. The bet basically means we’re backing Brighton to win, draw or lose by one goal.
In their last 21 games against teams that finished in the top-nine of the Premier League last season, Brighton have only lost three games by more than one goal. Included in that run is a 1-0 win at Anfield and a 1-1 draw with Klopp’s men at the Amex last season.
Of course, Liverpool are a more ruthless beast this season, dishing out thrashings to most teams they meet. They have scored at least three goals in nine of their last 11 matches. Frightening.
However, Brighton are a defensively shrewd side capable of keeping the match tight. Since the turn of the year, Brighton’s expected goals against figure of 30.07 is only bettered by Chelsea and Manchester City ranking them higher than Liverpool and they have kept just as many clean sheets as the Reds (13).
Along with taking a positive view on Brighton’s chances in the match markets, I also want to invest in the amount of shots they have at Anfield. Graham Potter’s men have little fear when tasked with taking on the big boys. In their last two fixtures with Man City, Potter’s side have managed an average of 14.5 shots per 90 minutes. That’s an amazing effort when you consider City usually average around 6.5 shots per 90 minutes in the Pep Guardiola era. And in four fixtures against Liverpool, Brighton have posted shots totals that read: 11,13,12 and 12.
Jurgen Klopp’s men do allow space for the opposition which does normally lead to shots on their goal. Burnley (9), Crystal Palace (13), Norwich (14) and Brentford (12) have all managed to post numerous attempts on Alisson’s goal this season and Brighton have a greater attacking process than their four teams. Sky Bet are offering a single price of 11/8 on Brighton to have 10 or more shots, which has a tremendous chance of landing.
My advice is to combine both the +2 handicap and the shots line in a tasty 5/1 double that I will be backing with double stakes.
The Jack Grealish-Joao Cancelo dynamic down Manchester City’s left is quickly becoming a thing of beauty.
They have passed to one another 169 times this season – the most produced by a City combination in the opposition half. Cancelo’s willingness and intelligence to move inside from full-back while Grealish takes two defenders out of the game out wide is almost impossible to defend against – as Brighton found out last weekend.
The pair have yet to link up for a goal but it’s only a matter of time. Cancelo has assisted three Grealish shots and Grealish has assisted four Cancelo shots, including two in last weekend’s 4-1 thrashing of Brighton. Palace’s Joel Ward has a big job on his hands trying to stop these two with the 18/1 with Sky Bet about Cancelo scoring from a Grealish assist worth an interest at a big price. It’s an angle that will cop in the near future it’s just about timing it right. Hopefully, we can land the pot this weekend.
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